There May Be Far More People on Earth Than the Official 8.2 Billion
The latest estimates place the global population at approximately 8.2 billion people. However, a new study by researchers at Aalto University in Finland suggests that this figure may be significantly underestimated.
The researchers argue that many datasets used to estimate population sizes undercount the number of people living in rural areas. The study was published in Nature Communications.
In an analysis of five leading global population datasets—WorldPop, GWP, GRUMP, LandScan, and GHS-POP—the team found that these sources may be missing between 53 and 84 percent of the rural population.
For instance, the most reliable data from 2010 underestimated the rural population by 32 percent, and in some cases by as much as 77 percent. The researchers suggest that similar errors may also affect more recent estimates for 2015 and 2020.
Currently, it is estimated that 43 percent of the global population lives in rural areas, a figure that casts doubt on the accuracy of existing population estimates.
“Our study provides the first evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may be absent from global population databases,” said the study’s lead author, Josias Lang-Ritter. The researchers compared displacement data collected from more than 300 dam projects across 35 countries.
According to Lang-Ritter, this data offers a more comprehensive view because it accounts for people displaced by construction-related flooding—an aspect often overlooked in global datasets, which can be skewed by administrative boundaries.
Not all experts agree with the findings, however. Stuart Gietel-Basten of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology expressed skepticism about whether the study’s conclusions could be applied globally, noting that the data primarily focused on China and other Asian countries.
The study raises critical questions about how population data is collected, especially in developing countries and regions affected by crises. For example, methods relying on satellite imagery may fail to account for areas without electricity, further reducing the accuracy of the data.
Addressing these gaps is crucial for more effective resource allocation and infrastructure planning. “Many countries depend on global population maps to decide whether to build roads or hospitals,” Lang-Ritter noted.
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